- ... street''.1
-
Although it is clear that Zurcher was not capable of formally solving
the dynamic programming problem (indeed, he only had a high school
education and had no formal education in economics or probability theory)
I argue that a combination of
experience, intuition, and trial and error enabled Zurcher to discover a
cost-efficient replacement strategy. Thus, for all intents and purposes
we can treat Zurcher as behaving as if he had actually solved the
dynamic programming problem. This ``as if'' argument is quite
powerful and applies to many areas of human expertise. For example
even though we need to appeal to some fairly
deep principles of physics to explain the trajectories
of balls in a game of billards, few people would argue that one
needs to have a PhD in physics to be an expert billards player.
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- ... them.2
- Research on
subjective probabilities using the HRS data does reveal that
individuals do have very well-defined and highly
rational subjective probability assessments of a number of
key events such as death, job loss, etc.
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